> NASA publishes the temperature anomaly every month> Polymarket trades it across six buckets> between them sits a problem linear regression solves cleanly> Mac Mini. Claude Code. 30 lines of Python.> μ = model prediction. σ = residuals.> P(bucket) = Φ((b-μ)/σ) - Φ((a-μ)/σ)> model says 56%. market trades at 48%.> EV = 0.56 - 0.48 = +0.08 per share.> edge isn't in the regression. it's in who sees fresh data first.
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